The Elliott Wave Forecast is Subjective, Bias Driven And Backwards looking
The Elliott Wave Forecast is Subjective, Bias Driven And Backwards looking

The Elliott Wave Forecast is Subjective, Bias Driven And Backwards looking

| Rich Clifford | Blog

A good portion of those who reach out to us mention the Elliott Wave Forecast.

I utilize the Elliott Wave theory with emphasis on the ongoing fractals that makes up the patterns in my trading.”
I do technical analysis and was following Elliott waves. Elliott waves are supposed to work on all time frames since they are fractals and that’s I understand what a fractal is.”
I have heard that Market Structure (elliott wave) is the best way to trade this market.“
Do you use Elliott Wave Theory as well, it ties well with fractals?

To cut things short: Elliot wave has nothing to do with fractals.

So what is a fractal?
Fractals in data are 2 dimensional visualizations in a 3 dimensional space (a 3-sphere). They can be seen visually in nature or space. They can be constructed out of data (provided there is enough of it) and they can be projected forward after the fractal has been identified.

One must use electromagnetic theory, gauge theory, chaos theory and wave / group velocity functions (pure math and physics). This process is absolute. There is no guessing. No ambiguity. And no speculation. The math determines if and when a fractal has been identified.

And Elliot Wave?
Elliott Wave, on the other hand, requires you to stare at a chart (read this article for a more in depth analysis) and speculate about where you are in space and time operating on the assumption the elliot wave 5 up / 3 down pattern has any basis in reality (it doesn’t).

Common misconceptions about Elliott Wave include:
  • It’s a fractal (not it’s not).
  • It’s a leading indicator (again… no).
  • It’s pattern recognition technology (shakes head).
So please don't confuse Elliot wave with real fractals. Elliot wave is awesome at telling you what has happened… and rather useless at telling you what will happen.